Trading could be lackluster ahead of the data amid a dearth of near-term catalysts. That’s still unpleasantly high and likely keeps a July Fed rate hike on the front burner.
Core inflation for June could ease to around 5%, according to the consensus analyst estimate from Trading Economics. Core CPI rose 5.3% in May, far above the 2% Fed target and the headline CPI of 4% that month. Veteran investors (and the Federal Reserve) are likely to instead focus on core CPI, which eliminates volatile food and energy prices. It could be influential on Wall Street, potentially giving stocks a psychological lift. We’ve now lapped that report, meaning the comparison to last year is much “easier.” This plays heavily into headline CPI. The June 2022 month-over-month CPI marked the peak of the 2021–2022 inflation surge as crude oil prices (/CL) soared. It’s misguided, though, to make too much of the headline CPI data. Perhaps in anticipation of a bullish report, stocks are climbing in premarket trading this morning and building on Monday’s light gains. In fact, that number could be as low as 3% on the dot, making it the softest year-over-year rise in more than two years. There’s a strong likelihood that Wednesday’s eagerly awaited June CPI report will have a “3” as the first digit in the year-over-year headline inflation growth figure. Inflation data and earnings season loom, with tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing the opening salvo.
(Tuesday market open) An uneventful start to the week belies the excitement ahead. Treasury yields and dollar pull back, giving stocks a slight tailwindįed speakers include Bullard today, Waller on Thursday, as rate hike probability nears 95% Trading could be light today amid a dearth of catalysts ahead of tomorrow’s CPI data
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